PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Nationals' Dylan Crews makes MLB debut on LSU teammate Paul Skenes' heels

WASHINGTON – Used to be PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerthat the Major League Baseball draft was a crapshoot, that teams were making blind bets on undeveloped talent, relying on handwritten scouting reports or perhaps some grainy videotape.

Dylan Crews illustrated Monday just how wildly things have changed.

In 13 months, Crews, 22, went from the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft to the No. 2 slot in the Washington Nationals’ lineup, making his debut against a mighty New York Yankees team and still marveling at the fact he’s going to work every day in a major league ballpark, even as his player pedigree long suggested that would be his vocation.

And a year from now, it’s quite possible that the Nos. 1-2 picks in his draft also claimed Rookie of the Year honors in consecutive years.

See, Crews’ LSU teammate, Paul Skenes, edged him for the honor of top overall pick a year ago, and now the 6-foot-6 fireballer is dominating the National League – starting the All-Star Game, posting a 2.16 ERA in 17 starts, striking out 11.3 batters and amassing 4.4 WAR with five weeks and several starts remaining in the season.

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“In my eyes,” Crews said Monday, “he’s generational. He’s doing very well for himself.”

That’s not just because of the record $9.2 million signing bonus (Crews “settled” for $9 million as the No. 2 pick). Skenes and Crews flourished at LSU, taking their obvious physical gifts to a higher level thanks to their modern player development apparatus there. Crews claimed Golden Spikes Award honors thanks to a .418 batting average. .562 OBP and 104 hits; Skenes kept the radar gun seemingly stuck on 100 mph, striking out a staggering 209 in 122 2/3 innings.

It seemed all both stars needed was some polish to reach the majors. Yet this game is never hesitant to humble.

Failed or underwhelming No. 1 or 2 picks have littered the landscape for decades, be it position players such as Tim Beckham or Matt Bush, or big, burly, college-polished right-handers like Mark Appel, Bryan Bullington or Matt Anderson.

Dozens of can’t-miss kids have done just that. And perhaps that’s why the speed to the majors - and the near certainty Crews and Skenes bring is so jarring.

Just two sets of 1-2 picks have reached the big leagues quicker than Skenes and Crews. In June 2015, shortstops Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman went 1-2, out of Vanderbilt and LSU, respectively. Bregman debuted with the Houston Astros on July 25, 2016 while Swanson, after a trade to the Atlanta Braves, debuted on Aug. 17, 2016.

And in 1993, Alex Rodriguez and Darren Dreifort were the top two picks, with Dreifort debuting with the Los Angeles Dodgers in April 1994 and A-Rod with the Mariners in July 1994, just days before the players' strike shut the season down.

Many more players were rushed, foolishly, to the big leagues, perhaps most notoriously David Clyde, picked first overall out of a Houston high school by the Texas Rangers and debuting that June. He made just 73 big league starts.

Safe to say today's blue chip prospect is far more polished.

Crews ran through the finish line of the minor leagues, with 21 hits in his final 16 games, a .385 OBP and .913 OPS at Class AAA Rochester, against competition more than four years his seniors. He is a true five-tool player who can man all three outfield positions, starting his career in right.

And as he joins a burgeoning Nationals core that gets more promising with every promotion (there have been eight debutantes this year), there’s a chance he’ll be asked to do even more.

Crews is sandwiched in the Nationals' lineup by All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams, 23, and slugging rookie James Wood, 21, who beat Crews to the bigs by less than two months. Wood, like Abrams was acquired in the 2022 megadeal for Yankees outfielder Juan Soto, has been an imposing, 6-foot-7 revelation: An .822 OPS, five homers, seven doubles and three triples in 203 plate appearances.

Like Abrams, he has abundant chill. Crews, raised in the fire of the Southeastern Conference and the fishbowl of LSU athletics, won’t hesitate to spice things up if needed.

“In college, you learn how to get out of your comfort zone a lot,” says Crews, who drew a walk and was hitless in three at-bats of his major league debut, a 5-2 loss to the Yankees. “For me, if that’s to be more vocal and to lead not just by example and get guys going more, I’m open to that.

“If CJ and Woodie’s role is to lead more by example, I have to get out of my comfort zone and lead vocally. I’m open to doing that.”

The Nationals are ready for him.

“He’s here for a reason,” says Abrams. “It’s a young group. We get better every day together. In spring training, we had a good time, we were all getting better together and it’s coming together, for sure.

“He does it all. He’s fun to watch. In spring training, we got a little preview. He’s been doing his thing in the minors, and now it’s time to show in the big show.”

Perhaps it was coincidentally Crews’ time to pop, but the timing of his arrival is probably no accident for the Nationals. He was called up late enough to ensure he’ll serve less than 45 days on their active roster, maintaining his rookie eligibility for 2025.

Should he finish in the top two in rookie voting, the Nationals will receive a compensatory draft pick after the first round. The Pittsburgh Pirates are almost certain to cash that in with Skenes, who is now in a pitched battle for Rookie of the Year with the San Diego Padres’ super clutch outfielder, Jackson Merrill.

“Paul’s a great player. He definitely deserves everything,” says Crews. “One of the hardest workers I’ve ever seen. You could flip a coin with Merrill and Paul. They’re both very special talents.”

Elite talent always bubbles to the big leagues. Crews and Skenes are proof that it seems to happen more quickly – and with greater certainty – than ever.